Against the backdrop of economic recovery and increased consumer activity of the population, retail trade turnover in real terms grew by 6.5% yoy in 2021, the highest value since 2015. However, further growth slowed down sharply due to the January events, the depreciation of the tenge and a surge in inflation in February and March of this year. As a result, in January-April 2022, the retail sector showed an improvement in retail sales of only 0.8% yoy.
In 2022, in our opinion, due to the persistence of the negative effects of external shocks, the return of households to the pre-pandemic consumption model will be slow, and the growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 3-4% yoy.
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