Trading ideas department

In 2022, in our opinion, due to the persistence of the negative effects of external shocks, the return of households to the pre-pandemic consumption model will be slow, and the growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 3-4% yoy.
 

We expect that the strengthening of the tenge and further stabilization of the economy will stimulate an increase in imports and, as a result, will lead to a reduction in the trade surplus in the coming months of this year.

In 1Q2022 high oil prices and other export commodities of Kazakhstan against the backdrop of significant expansion of government spending contributed to the acceleration of Kazakhstan’s GDP growth to 4.4% yoy. 

After a sharp acceleration in March to 3.7% mom, consumer inflation slowed down in monthly terms to 2% in April. 

In 2021, rising commodity prices, significant inflows of budgetary and non-budgetary funds into the real sector of the economy, as well as the acceleration of consumer lending and the withdrawal of savings from the UAPF contributed to the recovery of the growth rate of the Kazakhstani economy to the pre-crisis level of 4% yoy. 

Fixed Income Weekly: February 28 - March 06, 2022

Fixed Income Weekly: February 21 - February 27, 2022

Fixed Income Weekly: February 14 - February 20, 2022

We expect a moderate rise in prices in December this year, which, combined with the “high base effect” at the end of last year, will lead to slowdown of inflation to 8.6% yoy.