Research

In June, consumer inflation rates continued to grow and amounted to 1.6% mom. 

In 2022, in our opinion, due to the persistence of the negative effects of external shocks, the return of households to the pre-pandemic consumption model will be slow, and the growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 3-4% yoy.
 

We expect that the strengthening of the tenge and further stabilization of the economy will stimulate an increase in imports and, as a result, will lead to a reduction in the trade surplus in the coming months of this year.

As a result of the outstripping growth of state budget revenues (+45% yoy) over its expenditures (+15% yoy), the state budget balance for the first time in four years developed a surplus in 1Q2022, amounting to KZT0.2 trillion.

We expect a further slowdown of consumer prices growth in the coming months, which will help bring annual inflation below 14%.

We expect a significant trade surplus to remain in the near term.

After a sharp acceleration in March to 3.7% mom, consumer inflation slowed down in monthly terms to 2% in April. 

Fixed Income Weekly: February 28 - March 06, 2022

Fixed Income Weekly: February 21 - February 27, 2022