Research

Due to good stance in the non-commodity sector in 1Q2023, Kazakhstan's economy showed solid growth at 4.9% yoy (the highest growth rate over the past 11 years). 

In 2022, Kazakhstan’s economy experienced the same challenges as the global economy as a whole – record consumer inflation, rapid and widespread tightening of monetary conditions, reduced household consumption, deteriorating residential real estate market, as well as negative consequences of the military conflict in Ukraine.

Disruptions in the oil and gas industry and subdued consumer activity led to a slowdown in the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 9M2022 to 2.8% yoy from 3.6% yoy in 1H2022 and 4.6% yoy in 1Q2022.

During the first 5 months of this year, the economy of Kazakhstan evinced high growth rate of 4.6% yoy amidst a favorable commodity price environment in the global markets.

In June, consumer inflation rates continued to grow and amounted to 1.6% mom. 

In 2022, in our opinion, due to the persistence of the negative effects of external shocks, the return of households to the pre-pandemic consumption model will be slow, and the growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 3-4% yoy.
 

We expect that the strengthening of the tenge and further stabilization of the economy will stimulate an increase in imports and, as a result, will lead to a reduction in the trade surplus in the coming months of this year.

As a result of the outstripping growth of state budget revenues (+45% yoy) over its expenditures (+15% yoy), the state budget balance for the first time in four years developed a surplus in 1Q2022, amounting to KZT0.2 trillion.

We expect a further slowdown of consumer prices growth in the coming months, which will help bring annual inflation below 14%.

We expect a significant trade surplus to remain in the near term.