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Macroeconomic report 1Q2023

Due to good stance in the non-commodity sector in 1Q2023, Kazakhstan's economy showed solid growth at 4.9% yoy (the highest growth rate over the past 11 years). 

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Macroeconomic report 4Q2022

In 2022, Kazakhstan’s economy experienced the same challenges as the global economy as a whole – record consumer inflation, rapid and widespread tightening of monetary conditions, reduced household consumption, deteriorating residential real estate market, as well as negative consequences of the military conflict in Ukraine.

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Macroeconomic report 3Q2022

Disruptions in the oil and gas industry and subdued consumer activity led to a slowdown in the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 9M2022 to 2.8% yoy from 3.6% yoy in 1H2022 and 4.6% yoy in 1Q2022.

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Macroeconomic report 2Q2022

During the first 5 months of this year, the economy of Kazakhstan evinced high growth rate of 4.6% yoy amidst a favorable commodity price environment in the global markets.

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Inflation in June 2022

In June, consumer inflation rates continued to grow and amounted to 1.6% mom. 

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Overview of retail trade

In 2022, in our opinion, due to the persistence of the negative effects of external shocks, the return of households to the pre-pandemic consumption model will be slow, and the growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 3-4% yoy.
 

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External trade of RK in January-April 2022

We expect that the strengthening of the tenge and further stabilization of the economy will stimulate an increase in imports and, as a result, will lead to a reduction in the trade surplus in the coming months of this year.

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State budget of Kazakhstan in 1Q2022

As a result of the outstripping growth of state budget revenues (+45% yoy) over its expenditures (+15% yoy), the state budget balance for the first time in four years developed a surplus in 1Q2022, amounting to KZT0.2 trillion.

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Inflation in May 2022

We expect a further slowdown of consumer prices growth in the coming months, which will help bring annual inflation below 14%.

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External trade of RK in January-March 2022

We expect a significant trade surplus to remain in the near term.

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