Research

In June, consumer inflation rates continued to grow and amounted to 1.6% mom. 

In 2022, in our opinion, due to the persistence of the negative effects of external shocks, the return of households to the pre-pandemic consumption model will be slow, and the growth rate of retail trade turnover will be 3-4% yoy.
 

We expect that the strengthening of the tenge and further stabilization of the economy will stimulate an increase in imports and, as a result, will lead to a reduction in the trade surplus in the coming months of this year.

As a result of the outstripping growth of state budget revenues (+45% yoy) over its expenditures (+15% yoy), the state budget balance for the first time in four years developed a surplus in 1Q2022, amounting to KZT0.2 trillion.

We expect a further slowdown of consumer prices growth in the coming months, which will help bring annual inflation below 14%.

We expect a significant trade surplus to remain in the near term.

In 1Q2022 high oil prices and other export commodities of Kazakhstan against the backdrop of significant expansion of government spending contributed to the acceleration of Kazakhstan’s GDP growth to 4.4% yoy. 

After a sharp acceleration in March to 3.7% mom, consumer inflation slowed down in monthly terms to 2% in April. 

In 2021, rising commodity prices, significant inflows of budgetary and non-budgetary funds into the real sector of the economy, as well as the acceleration of consumer lending and the withdrawal of savings from the UAPF contributed to the recovery of the growth rate of the Kazakhstani economy to the pre-crisis level of 4% yoy.