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Oil market on the way to recovery

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Amidst of an increase in the average oil price by 58% yoy in 1H2021 to $65 per barrel and a decrease in oil production by 5.3%1 yoy, revenues from oil exports from Kazakhstan for 6M2021 decreased by 10.9% yoy to $13.4 bn. Along with it, investments in oil sector in 1H2021 demonstrated a drop of 38.1% yoy. Taking into account the recent lowering of the oil output forecast by the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2021 from 86 mn tons (+0.4% yoy) to 85.3 mn tons (-0.5% yoy), the recovery of the oil industry in 2H2021, as well as its impact on the overall economic growth of the Republic of Kazakhstan, will depend on the level of global oil prices. In the second half of this year, oil prices are expected to remain at the level of 60-70 $/barrel, supported by an improvement in the global balance of supply and demand. As of 1H2021, global oil consumption increased by 5.9% yoy, while supply partly driven by the OPEC+ agreement, decreased by 2.8% yoy. As a result, the decline of excess reserves of oil and petroleum products continued and their level returned to pre-pandemic values.

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