Research

We keep our forecast for consumer inflation at the level of 8.5-8.7% at the end of 2021.

Fixed Income Weekly: August 23 - August 29, 2021

Fixed Income Weekly: August 16 - August 22, 2021

As of 1H2021, global oil consumption increased by 5.9% yoy, while supply partly driven by the OPEC+ agreement, decreased by 2.8% yoy. As a result, the decline of excess reserves of oil and petroleum products continued and their level returned to pre-pandemic values.

Fixed Income Weekly: August 09 - August 15, 2021

In the 1st half of 2021, the company's net profit increased by 89% yoy to KZT 58.1 bn due to the faster growth rates of income compared to costs, reduction of other expenses, as well as due to the compensation from Telia and Turkcell in the amount of T9.4 bn. Within this, we forecast an increase in dividends by the end of 2021 by 87% yoy to 3,230 KZT/share. We maintain the recommendation to Buy Kazakhtelecom shares from 12M Price target 39,398 KZT/share.

Fixed Income Weekly: August 2 - August 8, 2021

By the end of 2021, we forecast GDP growth of 3.2%, inflation at the level of 8.5-8.7% yoy, and the tenge exchange rate at the level of 435 tenge/$.

According to the results of the 1st half of 2021, Kcell's revenue increased by 15% yoy, and net profit increased by 83% yoy, which is generally in line with our expectations. Based on the projected growth of administrative expenses and capital expenditures for 2021 and 2022, we adjusted our target price from 2,190 to 1,810 tenge / share. Taking into account the 33% drop in the share price since the publication of our last recommendation ("Delisting of GDRs and financial results for 2020" dated March 11, recommendation to Sell), we are raising our recommendation from Sell to Buy.

We raise our forecast for consumer inflation to 8.5-8.7% by the end of 2021.