The most significant inter-sectoral programs aimed at the realization of the transport and transit potential of Kazakhstan was the State Program for the Development and Integration of the Transport System Infrastructure of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2020. The Program for the Development of the Transit Transport Capacity of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2004-2006 and the Program for the Development of Transport Infrastructure in the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2010-2014 preceded the above-mentioned program. Presently the government implements the State Infrastructure Development Program for 2015-2019 Nurly Zhol in the republic. Under the state programs of transport and transit potential development were directed circa KZT7,930bn. Under the Nurly Zhol program, the funding amounted to KZT7,676 bn.According to the Minister of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Kazakhstan, this year the concept of the program Nurly Zhol until 2025 will be developed and presented.
Over the past few years, the transport industry of Kazakhstan has not shown serious structural changes, maintaining its share in GDP at the level of averages of just over 7% (2015-2018). As of the end of 2018, according to our estimates, the share of the industry was 7.5% (7.4% in 2017). The gross output of transport services in January-December 2018, according to preliminary data, amounted to KZT7,240 bn tenge (+ 11.8% yoy or KZT6,474 bn in 2017). The growth of the industry in real terms was 4.6% yoy versus 4.8% yoy a year earlier.
Revenue structure of the transport industry is at 81% (78.7% in 2018) in 2007-2018 formed by railway (railway) and pipeline transportation on average in the period. The share of urban transport (bus, taxi, trolleybus, and tramway) in the revenue structure for the advising period was 3.8% (3.5% in 2018). The average share of maritime transport (inland and sea) is 0.5% (0.2% in 2018). Changes in freight traffic in Kazakhstan in 1991-2018 were irregular. The most noticeable freight was observed at the beginning of the period and amounted to 2,513.4mn tons or 437.2 bn tons/km with a subsequent reduction of freight to 1 065.9mn tons or 149.7 bn tons/km in 1999. Cargo freight by all types of transport in 2018 increased by 4.0% yoy and amounted to 4,130.6mn tons of cargo and luggage (5.8% yoy in 2017). Cargo turnover growth in 2018 was 5.7% yoy to 596.1 t/km (8.7% yoy in 2017).
Bus transportation had the largest load of all passenger transportation in the Republic of Kazakhstan. In the period from 1998 to 2008, the share of traffic by this type of transport averaged 69% or 6,327 on average over the period. Starting from 2009, the share of this transport significantly increases from 74% (8,692 mn. people) to 82% (18,314 mn. people) in 2016. In 2017, there was a decrease in the share of bus traffic and at the end year, the share of passengers transported by this type of transport was 80% (18,237mn. people), and in 2018 72% (16,541mn. people).
In the revenue structure of the industry from transportation by types of transport, the share of railway (railway) and pipeline transport averaged 81% (78.7% in 2018) in 2007-2018. Structurally, the shares of these two industries have undergone noticeable changes. The share of railway transport in the revenue structure decreased from 55.3% in 2006 to 31.1% in 2018, and the share of pipeline transport increased from 26.2% to 47.5%.
The dynamics of investment in the transport industry (excluding store housing) was extremely irregular. Thus, from 2004-2009 there was a positive increase in investment in the industry from KZT87bn to KZT570bn per year. In 2010, investments in fixed assets amounted to KZT310bn. in 2013, reaching their historic maximum of KZT964 bn. Consequently, there is a decrease in investment in the industry to T405bn in 2016. In 2017, investments in fixed capital amounted to KZT492bn in current prices or KZT157bn. in 2003 prices. A significant inflow of investments (64% on average for the period) in the period 2003-2017 went to transportation by pipeline. The gross inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) showed that in the structure of all foreign investment the share of investment in the transport industry (excl. storage) averaged circa 1.4% in 2005-2018.
In 2003-2018, fixed assets (FA) of the industry increased by 13.1 times and as of the beginning of 2018 and amounted to KZT7,042 bn. The FA adjusted for inflation (2003 = 100) increased by 4.2 times and amounted to KZT2,248 bn. In the structure of fixed assets of the transport industry, a significant share of 60% (on average from 2008-2017) falls on fixed assets (FA) of transportation by pipeline. The share of automobile and urban electric transport in the structure of fixed assets of the industry from 2004-2017 averaged 7%.
The share of the FA of air transport in the structure of the industry averaged about 4.1% over the analyzed period. As of the end of 2017, the depreciation of the fixed assets of the transport and storage industry accounted for 24.2%. The depreciation level of fixed assets in the industry from 2003 to 2010 was higher and averaged 30%, from 2011 to 2017 this figure averaged 25%. This trend is typical for all types of transport.
Evaluation of the effectiveness of fixed assets utilization of the transport industry (gross output of transport services to fixed assets at initial cost) showed that capital productivity from 2006 continuously decreased from 1.21 to 1.10 tenge in 2008. In 2009-2012, a decrease in the capital productivity index occurred from 0.97 to 0.71 tenge. In 2015, 1 tenge of fixed assets of the transport industry created only 0.62 tenge of gross output in 2006 prices. The observed decrease in the capital productivity ratio shows that the industry is accumulating capital, the utilization of which is inefficient so far. He fact is confirmed by the growth dynamics of the gross output of the transport industry (at current prices 13.4% and in prices of 2006 7.4%), yielding to the rate of growth of capital accumulation in the industry (in current prices 20.7% and in 2006 prices 15%).
Accumulated price inflation (2005 = 100) in the transport industry amounted to 445%, while the inflation rate indicator for consumer prices was 287% and the IPI of manufacturers of industrial products - 318%. Other sectors that demonstrate substantial cumulated inflation are the price index for the purchase of industrial and technical products 333%, and the producer price index for agricultural products 303%. The main reasons for the observed level of price inflation in the industry are its high monopolization, technologically and physically obsolete equipment, as well as high operating costs associated with the infrastructure and maintenance of old equipment. In addition, the maintenance of an aging railway fleet using non-original spare parts makes maintenance of transport equipment unreliable and short lived in post-repair period and increases the company's operating costs, which reflect in the growth of tariffs.
Labor resources employed in the transportation and storage in 2006-2018 increased from 437.4 thousand to 624.7 thousand people. The inflow of labor resources in the industry in the period occurred at an average annual rate of 3.1%. The share of people employed in the transport and warehousing industry increased from 5.9% in 2006 to 7.2% in 2018. The structure of the employed population in the industry in 2006 was 74.5% represented by employees. Since 2011, there has been a decrease in the share of hired workers from 72.8% to 67.5% in 2018. In 2018, the number of employed people in the transportation and storage amounted to 625 thousand people. Industry statistics also have information on the number of employees, i.e. the number of persons accepted under an employment contract, which is on average 62.4% less than the total labor force of the industry.
On average, wages per employee in the transportation and storage were 29% higher than the average monthly nominal wages in the economy as a whole. The established nominal wage per employee in the industry in 2018 at the level of KZT223.7 thousand was commensurate with the size of the nominal wage in the construction industry (KZT227.5 thousand) and industry as a whole (KZT255.5 thousand).
The two-factor analysis showed that a positive contribution to the growth of the transport industry is made by increasing of the capital of the industry, while the elasticity ratio of this factor was 0.65 in the first model and 0.59 in the second. Thus, the increase in the FA by 1 percentage point results in growth of gross output in the industry will be 0.65 pp. Since the labor factor in those models has a negative elasticity (-0.70) within a model confidence level of 90%, it becomes obvious that the industry is actually growing due to a quantitative increase in capital than in labor.
Taking into account that the revenue structure of the industry in the republic is formed by more than 70% by capital-intensive transport sub-sectors such as railway transport (cargo transportation) and transportation of cargo by pipeline (gas and oil), it becomes obvious that the output of the industry will be largely determined by its capital and capital productivity.
