Due to the slower reduction in tax revenues of the state budget in the third quarter to -9.5% yoy against -23% yoy in the second quarter, budget tax revenues decreased by 10% yoy in the first 9 months of this year. Lost tax revenues were compensated by the National Fund transfers, that provided 40% of all revenues in 9M2020. Spending of the state budget increased by 23% yoy in January-September. At the same time, only half of all expenditures were financed from the state budget revenues (62% in 9M2019), the rest was provided by transfers from the National Fund and state loans. As a result of the increased imbalances, the state budget deficit as of the end of the third quarter of 2020 tripled in annual terms to T1.9 tn. The situation with the spread of COVID-19 is still far from resolved, and oil prices remain 30% lower than last year, while the state budget deficit is rapidly increasing and will amount to 3.5% of GDP by the end of the year. Accordingly, the impact of the crisis, together with the need for fiscal stimulation of the economy, will continue to exert pressure on the state budget, which will cause a further increase in the state debt and a reduction in the National Fund's savings.
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