In the first quarter of 2021, state budget revenues excluding transfers from the National Fund (NF) increased by 2.6% yoy, which was mainly influenced by non-tax revenues. Tax revenues in annual terms slightly decreased, and the volume of transfers from the National Fund decreased by 8.6% yoy. At the same time, state budget expenditures in the first quarter increased by 18% yoy, mainly due to the growth of expenditures in the field of healthcare and servicing the public debt (more than 50% yoy growth). As a result, in 1Q2021, the state budget deficit sharply increased to T0.6 trillion (T35bn in 1Q2020), which led to an increase in borrowings by the Ministry of Finance, the volume of which increased 2.5 times in annual terms. In general, in 2021, the government plans to slightly increase budget expenditures to T17.8 trillion (17.5 trillion 2020), as a result of which the state budget deficit will remain at the level of the previous year (T2.8 trillion). Transfers of the National Fund to the budget are planned slightly lower than last year's figure at T4.6 trillion (T4.8 trillion in 2020). The amount of transfers will exceed receipts to the NF and will lead to a reduction in the assets of the National Fund. As a result, the assets of the National Fund will decrease to 33.4% of GDP (39.2% of GDP in 2020), while public debt will increase to 31% of GDP (29.1% of GDP in 2020).
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