The growth rate of consumer prices in March slowed down to 0.6% mom from 0.7% mom in February. This happened primarily due to the stabilization of the growth in prices for food products and tariffs for paid services. In annual terms, inflation was 7%, returning to mid-2020 indicators. Thus, the inflation peaks of 7.3%-7.5%, recorded in November 2020 - February 2021, have passed, and the “low base” effect has almost exhausted itself. The factors behind the slowdown in inflation are administrative intervention, the persistence of suppressed demand from the population and the stabilization of the national currency exchange rate, leading to a decrease in household inflationary expectations. We maintain our current forecast for inflation at 6.5% for 2021.
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