The growth rate of consumer prices in June accelerated to 1.1% mom from 0.7% mom in May. A significant impact on the acceleration of inflation was exerted by the rise in prices for seasonal food products against the background of the continued increase in the cost of fuel and energy, which is shifted to the selling price of goods and services. The exchange rate of the national currency (average) weakened by 2% qoq in the second quarter, and the effect of the transfer of the depreciation of the tenge to inflation also negatively affects the inflationary expectations of the population. Taking into account the upward dynamics of prices and the growth of general inflationary pressure on the economy, intensified through foreign trade channels, we raise our inflation forecast to 7.8-8.0% by the end of 2021, while we do not exclude a more significant acceleration of inflation rates in the event of a stable growth trend prices for energy and agricultural products.
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