The growth rate of consumer prices in April accelerated significantly to 0.9% mom from 0.6% mom in March. The main impact on the acceleration of the inflation rate was exerted by gasoline prices, which have been growing for the third month in a row. Gasoline prices in Kazakhstan have remained practically unchanged since 2018, however, since the beginning of the year, fuel has already risen in price by 11.6%. The exchange rate of the national currency in April reached its minimum value for the year at 430.11 tenge per US dollar. The weakening of the national currency by 10 tenge at once has a negative impact on prices for imported consumer goods and on inflationary expectations of the population. Taking into account the current price dynamics and rising inflationary pressures in many areas of the Kazakhstani economy, we are raising our inflation forecast from 6.5% to 7.0% by the end of 2021, while we do not exclude an even more significant acceleration of inflation.
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