Foreign Trade in January–July 2026: Exports Rise Amid High Oil and Metal Prices

In January–July 2026, Kazakhstan’s exports increased by 16% year-on-year to $50.9 billion, while imports rose by 4.3% to $36.9 billion. As a result, the trade surplus increased 1.6 times to $14.0 billion. In our view, higher oil and metal prices were the main factor behind the increase in export value. Oil exports rose by 8% in value terms, while physical volumes declined by around 6% amid lower production at the Tengiz field at the beginning of the year. The value of copper exports increased by around 1.5 times, with physical volumes up 9%, while silver exports more than doubled in value despite broadly unchanged shipment volumes. Physical export volumes of zinc, aluminium, ferroalloys and gold declined. Among major commodity groups, wheat also recorded an increase in physical export volumes.

The main contribution to export growth came from higher shipments to Türkiye, primarily copper and oil; to China, including uranium, silver and ferroalloys; and to Uzbekistan, mainly wheat. Import growth was more moderate and was driven primarily by increased supplies of gas and petroleum products from Russia, as well as phones, automotive components and equipment from China.

In our view, the current export dynamics are largely driven by commodity price conditions. The August–September 2026 data may continue to reflect the effect of higher oil prices observed in the spring. Going forward, if Brent remains at $85–90 per barrel, growth in export value may moderate.