Halyk Finance's trading idea: GE Vernova

GE Vernova – a global company focused on generating capacity to meet growing global electricity demand in the AI era. The company sells equipment and provides maintenance services. Its business model is based on high customer switching costs to alternative infrastructure solutions, allowing GE Vernova to maintain a high-margin station servicing business.

• Shortage of gas turbines and pricing power – GE Vernova’s gas capacity is sold out through 2028, with only about 10 GW of free slots remaining for 2029–2030. Under these conditions, the company raises equipment prices by 10–20% every six months and captures about a third of the entire gas energy project’s economics. Pricing power extends to services: management expects a comparable expansion of service contract margins. 
• AI data centers reshape demand – electrification is emerging as the primary growth driver and key source of financial growth. Global investments in grid technologies are expected to double by 2030 and exceed worldwide investments in renewable energy. 
• Nuclear option – GE Vernova expects a major deposit from a nuclear customer in the coming quarters, signaling visible commercialization of the segment. Management estimates that the U.S. could place orders for around ten small modular reactors, four in Canada, and up to five in Sweden in the foreseeable future. 
• $200 billion backlog by 2027 – the target for a cumulative $200 billion backlog has been moved forward by a year, and the milestone of 100 GW of contracted gas capacity was achieved nine months ahead of schedule. A growing backlog with rising prices means that ~$59 billion in revenue in 2028 (+55% vs. 2025) is largely already contracted, while operational leverage, automation, and lean programs are expected to double EBITDA margins to ~20%.