Overview of the development of Kazakhstan's gas sector in 2024-2025

In 2024, we prepared a review of Kazakhstan's gas sector based on the results of 2023, which examined the key features of the industry's development. The current report continues this analysis and covers the dynamics of the sector in 2024–2025, as well as the main factors that will determine its development in the coming years.

In 2024–2025, gross natural gas production increased, with a significant portion of the growth attributed to associated gas used in the technological cycle of major oil and gas fields. In 2025, the volume of reinjection reached nearly half of gross production, resulting in the overall production growth not being accompanied by a comparable expansion of marketable gas supply. 

Alongside the features of the resource base, a number of economic and infrastructure challenges remain. One of the key issues is the current pricing model in the domestic market. The existing level of regulated prices for marketable gas impacts the economic performance of market participants, preventing sufficient profitability of relevant operations, which is seen as one of the factors affecting the financial results of the national gas operator JSC «NC «QazaqGaz». Under these conditions, attracting private capital to gas production and processing projects remains one of the urgent tasks for the further development of the industry. This aspect is also reflected in the Comprehensive Plan for the Development of the Gas Industry for 2025–2029, which highlights the main challenges, including «the capital intensity of expanding the resource base, the need to attract private investment, the requirement for additional processing capacities, as well as insufficient profitability of projects in gas transport infrastructure».

Internal demand dynamics are becoming increasingly significant. Marketable gas consumption continues to grow amid further regional gasification, the connection of new consumers, industrial development, and gas-fired power generation. The volume of marketable gas surplus is declining compared to the parameters of the previous gas industry development plan. This trend indicates a gradual reduction in the gap between domestic consumption and available supply, necessitating continued monitoring of the balance between domestic consumption and marketable gas supply. 

The investment attractiveness of projects in geological exploration, gas production, and processing depends, among other things, on the economic parameters of gas sales in the domestic market. Given current profitability parameters and high capital intensity, a significant portion of industry projects are implemented with the participation of the state and national companies; the volume of state financing for such projects depends on available budget resources. One potential direction for the industry's further development could be the establishment of pricing and other economic conditions that support the investment attractiveness of projects while maintaining gas affordability for domestic consumers.

It should also be noted that in the new Comprehensive Plan, certain parameters of the forecast balance of marketable gas and domestic price dynamics are presented in an aggregated form. A more detailed representation of these indicators could facilitate a deeper analysis of market dynamics and the economic conditions for gas sales in the domestic market.