• Industrial Shadow (ISM Manufacturing PMI): In August, the US business activity index in the manufacturing sector (ISM Manufacturing PMI) fell from July's 55.6 to 54.6 points. Despite the decline, the sector has continued to expand for the eighth consecutive month. The weakening of activity was primarily driven by a notable decline in key components: new orders — from 56.7 to 53.7 points, backlog of orders — from 55 to 51.8 points, and employment — from 52.8 to 51.2 points, as well as a reduction in imports. The main factors negatively impacting production activity and business sentiment were price volatility, new trade tariffs, and geopolitical uncertainty (in particular, the conflict in Iran). 
• Service Gap (ISM Services PMI): The US business activity index in the services sector (ISM Services PMI) continued its steady growth in August, rising from July's 54.1 to 55.4 points, marking the sector's 26th consecutive month of expansion. The positive dynamics were primarily driven by an increase in the Business Activity Index subindex from 59.1 to 61.7 points and the new orders index from 57.2 to 60.9 points, which reached multi-year highs. Meanwhile, the employment index remained in contraction territory, though it showed a slight recovery from 47.4 to 47.8 points, and the price index jumped from 70.3 to 72.6 points amid rising fuel costs. The main factors influencing business sentiment and results were favorable summer seasonality, which supported tourism, leisure, and food services, as well as new trade tariffs and the Middle East conflict, which continued to pressure supply chains and drive up corporate costs.
• Regional Insights (Beige Book): According to the Fed's Beige Book, the US economy continues to grow moderately (expansion was recorded in 10 of 12 districts), but businesses are facing growing cost pressures. Consumers have become more frugal, leading to a decline in car and housing sales, though the premium segment remains stable. The main drivers of the economy are industry and commercial construction (primarily due to defense orders and the data center boom). On the labor market, employment growth is minimal: there is a severe shortage of skilled workers amid falling demand for retail and hospitality workers. Price growth remains moderate: businesses are finding it increasingly difficult to pass on rising raw material, logistics, and insurance costs to end consumers.
• Labor Mosaic (Nonfarm Payrolls): In August 2026, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, with the total number of unemployed standing at around 7.0 million. Previous months' data were revised upward: the June figure was adjusted from 20,000 to 31,000 jobs, and instead of the previously reported decline of 23,000 jobs in July, an increase of 21,000 jobs was recorded. The largest employment growth was observed in food services and local government education, while the information sector saw a reduction of 23,000 jobs.