Inflation in October 2021

An earlier seasonal rise in prices for fruit and vegetable products, combined with interruptions in the supply of energy resources in the domestic market and an increase in the cost of certain types of paid services, created a significant inflationary pressure in the consumer market of the republic. As a result, the growth rate of consumer prices in October accelerated significantly to 0.7% mom (0.4% mom in September), while in annual terms inflation remained at the same level of 8.9%. The Government's administrative measures to combat inflation, along with the gradual tightening of monetary conditions in the country, have not yet had the desired effect on inflation, the rate of which has reached its maximum level over the past five years. We expect a moderate rise in prices in the next two months of this year in response to more active measures to counter inflation by government agencies, as a result of which, as well as due to the high base of December last year, inflation at the end of this year, according to our forecast, will amount to 8.5-8.7% yoy.